Does Buying a New Launch in Singapore Beat Nearby Resale Around TOP?

You’re at a showflat looking at a three-bedroom in the first release. Down the road, there’s a completed condo you could move into this year. If both homes suit you, which one is likely to have gained more by the time the new condo is ready?

We tested that question using 47 matched pairs across 22 Singapore launches. The early launch purchases beat their nearby resale matches 22 of 47 times. At the median, the launch gained 1.9 percentage points less before costs. Give each launch project equal weight and the gap was close to zero.

When did the early launch come out ahead?

Buying in the first phase and selling around completion showed no consistent price-growth edge. The clearest difference was the price buyers paid relative to nearby resale at the start.

The launches that beat resale cost a median 16% more per square foot than their resale match at entry. The launches that trailed cost 37% more.

The gap is the median of the differences within each pair. A positive gap means the launch gained more in percentage terms.

Should you compare with buyers in the same project?

There are two comparisons to make. Other buyers in the launch help you judge the quote for your unit. A comparable completed home nearby is the benchmark for deciding whether buying the launch beat the resale option.

In our supplementary check, 46 of the 47 launch units had enough similar first-month sales in their own project. The winners had paid a median 0.39% below their own launch peers, and the ones that trailed paid 0.27% above. That was a much smaller separation than the one we saw against nearby resale.

Pasir Ris 8 shows why the resale benchmark matters. The eight matched launch purchases gained a median 26.8%. Their nearby resale matches gained 32.1%, and the launch came out ahead in one pair. At Park Colonial, all three matched launch units came out ahead, with a median advantage of 9.9 points. Both examples are small samples.

Does the result hold within 1 km?

When we ran the matching again with a hard 1 km limit, the launches won 6 of 22 pairs and trailed by 4.6 points at the median. Both premium bands above 10% trailed at the median. We found one close match at or below resale pricing and none with a positive premium up to 10%.

Of the seven launches bought at or below the resale price per sq ft in the original sample, six had resale matches more than 1 km away. We have too few close comparisons near price parity to tell whether that result would repeat.

The result also moved when we changed the sale window. Restricting sales to the recorded completion quarter itself gave the launch a 1.7-point median lead across 29 pairs. The choice of comparable and the timing of the sale can both change the answer.

How we matched the sales

We used TRIBE’s Singapore private residential transaction archive. The matched launch purchases were made from 2018 to 2022, within the first 30 days of recorded developer sales. We tracked the same physical unit from purchase to its next recorded sale and checked the earlier transaction against the recorded purchase date and price.

For this study, “around TOP” means the reported completion quarter plus 30 days on either side. That window can include sales before or after the Temporary Occupation Permit. BCA’s guide to TOP and CSC · URA’s completion reporting · Savills’ completion reporting

Each launch unit was matched to a resale unit that also changed hands twice. We required the same bedroom count and tenure category, floor area within 15%, a floor difference of no more than 10 storeys, and purchase dates, sale dates and holding periods each within 120 days. The initial radius was 2 km in a straight line between projects. For shorter leases, lease start dates had to be within 20 years. Each resale transaction pair was used once.

For the separate comparison inside each launch, we required at least eight other first-month sales with the same bedroom count, floor area within 10% and a floor difference of at most five storeys.

Limitations of the comparison

The study covers units with recorded sales at both ends and a usable match. 46 of 47 launch units were on 99-year leases. The sample can tell us how the matched sales turned out. It cannot tell us how the units still held would have fared or what caused the performance gap.

The figures measure sale-price growth. They exclude stamp duties, financing, legal and agency fees, renovation, maintenance, property tax and rent.

What does the extra price buy you?

Say the launch you’re considering is S$2,000 per sq ft and a comparable resale sold for S$1,800 per sq ft. That’s an 11% entry premium. If the resale later reaches S$2,000 per sq ft, the launch would need to reach about S$2,222 per sq ft to match its percentage gain. To come out ahead, the launch would have to sell at a higher premium than it commanded at purchase.

Then compare the homes. Can you use the space the way you want? How different is the walk to the MRT or school? When can you move in, and would you have to rent while waiting? A better layout, a fresher lease or a move-in date that suits your family can change what you’re willing to pay.

Put your two options side by side

Use the two unit prices and your move date to compare the cost of waiting, financing and renovation. TRIBE’s New Launch vs Resale Calculator

If you already own a launch unit and are deciding when to sell, there’s a separate comparison for that decision. TRIBE’s research on selling before or after completion

Source: TRIBE’s archived Singapore private residential transaction records through 14 June 2026 and published project completion records. This analysis is for general information. Verify your own costs and terms with your lender, IRAS and your conveyancing lawyer.