The Last Auction Cleared 15%. The Next One Is Guided 21% Above the Only Matching Sale.

Six freehold apartments forfeited in Singapore's S$3 billion money-laundering case go under the hammer on 28 October: five at Nouvel 18 in District 10 and one at New Futura in District 9. It is the second tranche of a Deloitte-managed programme covering about 80 properties, running in phases to mid-2027.

The first tranche is five weeks old, which is unusual in this market — there is a published base rate, from the same inventory, sold by the same houses, to the same buyers. It says this channel clears 4 of every 26 lots it offers, and that nothing clears at its opening price.

Measured against that record, the new guide prices are not set consistently. On the one lot where a like-for-like comparison exists, the guide is 21% above a sale of the identical floorplate five months ago. On another, it is 11% below the only comparable transaction of the year.

What September actually produced

Twenty-six properties were offered across two auction dates. Knight Frank took seven to the room on 17 September and sold none. On 23 September, ETC offered nine — including a 6,727 sq ft penthouse at South Beach Residences guided at S$25.3 million — and sold none. SRI offered ten and sold four.

The four that cleared, with their opening prices:

Openings totalled S$16.806 million and the hammer totalled S$16.28 million — the figure reported for the tranche, which is a useful check that the four lots above are the whole of it. Every sale landed below its own opening, by between 1.3% and 7.1%.

That is the first thing a guide price has to be read against. In this channel the guide is a ceiling that has never been reached, not a midpoint.

The failure mode was not quantum

The obvious reading of September — the big lots died, the small ones cleared — does not survive the lot list. Among SRI's ten, the two largest by quantum both sold: the S$6.78m Wallich four-bedder and the S$5.55m three-bedder. What failed was something more specific.

SRI offered four identical Martin Modern two-bedders, all roughly 764 sq ft, all opening at exactly S$2.238 million, in the same session. Two sold. One drew a top bid of S$2.11m — 5.7% under the opening — and was withdrawn. The fourth attracted no bid at all.

Four identical units met two buyers. That is not a verdict on the asset or on the price; it is the depth of same-day demand for one floorplate in one project, and it is the single most transferable number September produced.

Which matters, because the 28 October tranche does the same thing again. Five of Nouvel 18's 156 units — 3.2% of the entire development — are being offered in one afternoon. SRI's Mok Sze Sze frames this as an advantage: "With five units being offered at auction, buyers have multiple opportunities to secure a freehold residence." September's four-for-two result is the argument on the other side, and it comes from her own sale.

The guides against the buildings' own 2026 prices

Nouvel 18 is a 2014 freehold development of 156 units in two 36-storey blocks off Ardmore Park. The five lots run 1,335 to 6,125 sq ft and are guided at S$2,939 to S$3,558 psf. Only two of the five have published details.

Three resales in these two buildings this year give the comparison:

The middle row is the one that matters, because it is the same floorplate as the smallest auction lot — 1,335 sq ft, in the same building, five months ago, at S$2,772 psf. The auction lot is guided at S$3,356 psf, or 21.1% higher, and it sits on the ninth floor against the comparable's thirteenth. Height normally runs the other way.

The top of the guide range is more defensible. At S$3,558 psf it is 0.4% above the August resale at S$3,544 psf — effectively at market. And the largest lot, the 6,125 sq ft top-floor unit at S$18 million, works out to S$2,939 psf, which is 17.1% below that same August resale, a visible size discount on the hardest unit in the tranche to place.

New Futura runs the other way entirely. Its 2,691 sq ft four-bedder is guided at S$3,642 psf against S$4,099 psf for the only New Futura resale recorded this year, in May. That guide is 11.2% below its own comparable.

So within one catalogue there is a lot guided 21% above its matched comparable and a lot guided 11% below one. Both can be deliberate — floor, stack, layout, strata void and condition all differ, and the New Futura unit carries 140 sq ft of strata void inside its 2,691 — but no published reasoning connects them, and a buyer cannot infer a pricing policy from the pair.

What is not knowable

More is missing here than is usually acknowledged in coverage of these sales.

The original purchase prices and dates are not disclosed for any of the six units. No gain or loss against forfeiture can be computed, by anyone, from public sources.

Four of the five Nouvel 18 lots have no published size, floor or price. Only the smallest and the largest are itemised. The S$2,939–S$3,558 psf range is the only information about the other three, and the two itemised lots happen to be the two endpoints of it.

Reserve prices are not published — only guides. September's evidence is that reserves sit somewhere below guides, since four lots cleared beneath their openings, but the distance is unknowable. Deloitte was reported before the September sales to have no plans to revise reserves.

Unit mixes conflict across outlets. One report describes three- and five-bedders at Nouvel 18; another describes a four-bedder as the largest lot. We have not stated the mix, because the sources do not agree on it.

Nothing about outcome is known. The auction is 28 October. This piece is about how the asking prices were set, not what they will fetch.

The programme arithmetic

Thirty-two properties have been offered since September, out of a mandate of about 80, and four have sold. That is 40% of the inventory offered and 5% of it realised, in the first two months of a programme scheduled to finish by mid-2027.

Held at September's clearance rate, selling 80 properties would require roughly 520 lot-offerings. The mandate cannot complete on first passes. Either reserves come down, or the same properties cycle through repeatedly, or the programme runs past its stated horizon. SRI has said it is awaiting instructions on whether unsold units will be re-auctioned — which is the same question, asked from inside.

What to do with this

If you are bidding on 28 October, the September record is the most relevant comparable set in the market, and it says two things: nothing cleared at its opening, and the discount on what did clear ran 1.3% to 7.1%. The guide is an entry point, not a valuation.

If you are reading the guide as a price signal for these buildings, separate the lots. The top of the Nouvel 18 range is at the August resale level; the bottom is the penthouse carrying a size discount; the one matched floorplate is 21% above its own May transaction. One catalogue, three different relationships to the market.

If you own at Nouvel 18 or New Futura, the supply question is more immediate than the price question. Five units at a 156-unit development, in one session, against a channel that absorbed two of four identical lots last time — that is the variable September measured and the one most likely to decide the outcome.

If you are watching this as a market indicator, be careful. Forfeited-asset auctions sell under a timetable the owner did not choose, to a thin same-day audience, with no vendor able to hold out. A 15.4% clearance rate says something about this channel; it says very little about District 9 and 10 resale demand, where the comparables above all transacted in the ordinary market.

Method

Auction details, guide prices, sizes and floors are taken from the 7 October reports in EdgeProp and The Straits Times, and the 8 October reports in Mothership and Stacked Homes. Per-unit guides for the smallest and largest Nouvel 18 lots are published only by Mothership; the other three lots are undisclosed and are not characterised here. The September lot list, opening prices and outcomes are from Stacked Homes' 23 September report; the tranche totals of 26 offered, four sold and S$16.28 million are from The Straits Times. The house split reconciles to that total as Knight Frank 7, SRI 10 and ETC 9. Comparable resales at Nouvel 18 and New Futura are as reported by Stacked Homes and have not been independently verified against caveat data. All percentages are our own: guide against comparable is computed on both total price and psf and agrees to within 0.1 percentage point; the combined −3.1% is the sum of the four hammer prices against the sum of the four openings, not an average of the four individual discounts, which would give −4.1%. Guide prices are starting prices, not reserves and not valuations, and the September evidence is that reserves sit below guides by an undisclosed margin. Psf figures are computed on stated strata area, which for the New Futura lot includes 140 sq ft of strata void. The 156-unit and 124-unit development counts are as reported by The Straits Times. This is general market information, not advice on any purchase; confirm title, tenure, outstanding charges and auction terms with the marketing agent and your own solicitor before bidding on a forfeited property.